Wednesday’s Racing Tips – Fast Buck is massively overlooked on his beloved heavy ground

Rizzel had just one runner left on Tuesday as One More Stroke was withdrawn for unknown reasons about 15 minutes before the start of the Bangor race. His only selection, Ventara, ran well but was unable to keep up in the closing stages and was beaten by Robert Walford’s horse, who won before the summer race.

Rizzel is down -11,692 points for the month

Rizzel’s tips

Fast Buck 10/1 – Newton Abbot 2.30

I actually don’t think Fast Buck is the underdog in the field at the time of writing, with some huge odds. I’m trying to get this done as quickly as possible so the prices are still stable!

I choose horses before looking at the odds because I think odds can influence your opinion of a horse and discourage you from betting on a horse or vice versa, but the Fast Buck odds seem a little ridiculous if considering he has his place at Newton Abbot.

I assumed Fast Buck would be around 3/1 in this race and would be vying for favoritism as he has a very good record on heavy ground unlike many others in this race. He holds Mr. Gray Sky to last year’s performance when the two met, and the weights are pretty much identical, with a 1-pound swing in Fast Buck’s favor. So in theory it should turn out the same way again if Fast Buck jumps just as well as he did that day. He rarely runs well after a break, but that has been the case with Jane Williams’ horses this new season, so his hurdle racing shouldn’t be viewed too negatively. You have to focus on his pursuit form and when he has dropped to around this mark in the past he has won, which at Wincanton earlier in the year was at 122 when running on heavy ground and was at 119 before again on heavy Floor.

In my opinion, Royal Jewel doesn’t look particularly disabled. He was beaten by Striking A Pose over hurdles over 2m 2f, but this horse is essentially a 2m 7f/3m horse. So what does that tell you? The others have to prove themselves even after a dismissal and I don’t think the ground is what the majority want, so I had this between Mr Gray Sky and Fast Buck and given that Fast Buck is a step up from Kim Bailey’s horse is ahead, I thought this would be a piece of cake.

I’m happy to go on the nose with this pick, it’s EW priced and there are extra slots on offer, but I think the extra return for the same stake is worth the risk on this one.

Minella Blueway 14/1 EW – Newton Abbot 4.00

It’s probably going to come back and bite me in the butt because I’m with an Evan Williams horse and Adam Wedge is doing the steering as I don’t have a particularly good track record of backing their horses as they tend to back their horses plan specific goals, if you know what I mean then you know. However, I believe that Minella Blueway has a good chance as long as the connections like her chances.

This horse should like the ground, having shown a good attitude over hurdles on this surface last year when he won his first hurdle race on soft ground by 11L, for which the runner-up has since been rated in the low 130s. This horse has since had some good races with defeats over the shorter fences and made a modest pursuit debut at Ffos Las, but he was never in contention and I don’t think they ever had any intention of winning that race anyway. It was his first start in 180 days on a surface that was too fast for him and a journey that was too short, and he was in last place and was never included in the race. Despite all this he jumped so well on his Chase debut to suggest he has a future over hurdles and now further and on a slower surface I think he is worth a try in this race.

That’s a tough little handicap, but the price available on my selection is generous, but if the market turns negative you might as well throw your bet slip in the trash.

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